The completion of the Human Genome Project will be greeted by the humming of thousands of powerful computers, as drugs companies around the world race to analyse the final pieces of the genetic jigsaw. The next decade will see an explosion in the rate of drug development activity and any pharmaceuticals group which lags will be left far, far behind.
Allen Roses, worldwide director of genetics at Glaxo Wellcome, says: “This is not just a once in a lifetime event for the industry. There is only one human genome and what happens in the next five to 10 years will not be repeatable.”
Today’s work shows the position of every gene in the body. The challenge for drug researchers is to determine their functions, and identify tiny differences which cause disease. Medicines can then be accurately tailored to correct these tiny chemical deviances.
John Keller, director of SmithKline Beecham’s genomics technology group, says: “There certainly is going to be a competition but I don’t think people should underestimate the magnitude of the task. This completes one area of biology. Everyone within biology will be pursuing their own interests in it.”
The amount of money involved is immense. Britain’s second biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca, spends $8m a day on research and development. SmithKline spends over £1bn annually, employing nearly 8,000 people worldwide.
It will take, on average, 10 years from the point of identifying a gene “target” to launching a drug. Many such projects are already well under way. Ultimately, genomics will lead to differences in the way drugs are marketed. Doctors will be able to judge more accurately which patients are likely to respond to which medicines.
Dr Roses says: “We’ll be able to take people who’ve had adverse events in trials and look at their DNA to see what makes them different.”
He reckons this will ultimately mean higher sales, because people will no longer have to be persuaded to “risk” suffering side effects.
A clutch of smaller British players are well placed to take advantage of the “gene economy”. Oxford Glycosciences, a spin-out from Oxford University, has one of the world’s biggest libraries linking proteins to disease. By connecting these proteins with genes, the company can trace the roots of illness further back, making it much easier to design effective drugs. Its shares have surged eight-fold in a year, to value the business at more than £600m.
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